By the end of 2024, there will be 29 states with some form of Constitutional/Permitless Carry, but is that the last of the states that will pass some form of Constitutional Carry?
When I started the Idaho Second Amendment Alliance in 2012, there were only four states with Constitutional Carry: Vermont (which never had a permit system), Alaska, Arizona, and Wyoming.
In 2016, Idaho became the ninth state to pass constitutional carry. Since then, 20 additional states have passed Constitutional Carry.
The movement to remove the permit requirement has exploded, and we are happy that over half the country has jumped on board, recognizing the 2nd Amendment as your permit.
With a giant corridor of Constitutional Carry states across the country, have we reached our limit at 29?
First, we must recognize that there are no more states with all Republican control that can pass Constitutional Carry. Every state where Republicans control the state government has passed some form of Constitutional Carry.
Second, looking at the map provided by USCCA (click here for reference), only five states may have a chance, however slim, to pass Constitutional Carry: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
I’ll divide those states into two tiers based on their chances of passage.
Tier 1 states are those where a single flip of control (either Governor, House/Assembly, or Senate) will give the Republicans full control.
Tier 2 states have much more to do to gain full Republican control. They can’t just flip a chamber or governorship; they must flip either one chamber and the governorship or all three.
TIER 1
WISCONSIN
Democrats have controlled the governorship in Wisconsin since 2019. The Assembly and Senate, however, have been controlled by Republicans since 2011 with very wide margins.
Thus, if Wisconsin can get rid of its Democratic governor, it has a really good chance at passing Constitutional Carry. Again, this assumes the RINOs don’t stand in the way of passage, which has been an issue in Republican-controlled states for many years.
NORTH CAROLINA
N.C. is another state where the Democrats control the governorship and nothing else. They have held the governor’s seat since 2016.
The Republicans control the House by 24 seats and the Senate by 10 seats. These margins are big enough that if North Carolina Republicans can reclaim the governorship, they can pass Constitutional Carry sans RINO blockage.
TIER 2
VIRGINIA
Virginia only has a Republican governor currently, Glenn Youngkin, who is helping block more gun control from getting to his desk.
The Virginia legislature’s makeup is very close. Democrats control the House of Delegates and Senate by just two seats.
However, Republicans have not fully controlled Virginia in nearly a decade. Maybe that changes in the next election cycle, but even if they get full control, it may not be enough unless they gain many seats over the Democrats.
I wanted to put Virginia in the Tier 1 category, and they could be if they flip a large number of seats, but even if the Republicans get full control, if that control is only by a few seats, it likely won’t be enough.
PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylvania currently has Republican control only in the Senate with a six-seat margin.
Democrats control the governorship and House. In fact, Republicans have not had full control since 2014 and have been losing ground in the state to Democrats for years.
However, the Democrats’ margin in the House is very slim, with just one more seat than the Republicans.
Passage of Constitutional Carry, even with full Republican control, would likely require a good margin of Republicans because RINOs will defect to block it.
MICHIGAN
Republicans have not had full control of Michigan state government since 2018. The trend in the state is not a good one, and with Democrats having full control right now, I almost didn’t include them in the Tier 2 category.
Republicans lost control of the Michigan House and Senate in 2023. Currently, Democrats control the House and Senate by just two seats, so it’s possible those chambers could flip back to Republicans in the next election cycle.
CONCLUSION
There is likely no chance of a constitutional carry being passed outside those five states. And if we are being honest, only two of those states, the Tier 1 states, have a chance.
Minnesota was not included because, according to Ballotpedia (click here for reference), it has not had full Republican control since at least the early 1990s. Minnesota also lost the Senate to the Democrats in the last few years. The trend there is not good.
Do you agree with our analysis? What states would you add or take away from our list? Would you move some of them up or down a Tier?
Let us know in the comments below.
Note: Greg Pruett serves as the President and Founder of the Idaho Second Amendment Alliance.
